Last September, I posted to my other blog, "books, etc.," an analysis of the electoral paths to victory for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. I assumed no significant change in historical voting trends which meant five "swing states," Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada would determine the result of the election. Allocating the remaining "safe states" to their likely victors left Biden with a slight mathematical advantage over Trump.
I also considered North Carolina and Michigan in my calculations, but I found good reason not to include them as swing states. Trump seemed a pretty strong favorite in North Carolina and Biden was in a very good position to win Michigan. This last conclusion no longer seems so likely in light of Biden's response to Israel's war against Gaza.
There are roughly 300,000 Michigan voters who claim Middle Eastern or North African ancestry and roughly 200,000 Muslim's registered to vote in the state. Add to these voters younger Michiganders who disproportionately oppose Biden's policies toward Israel and Palestine and the total is quite significant. Recall, Biden's margin of victory in Michigan in 2020 was only 154,188 votes.
In Michigan's Democratic primary, 100,000 voters cast their ballot for "Uncommitted" in protest of Biden's support for Israel's war against Gaza; and just to underscore the depth of feeling on this issue, 19% of Minnesota Democratic primary voters (more than 45,000) cast their votes for "Uncommitted" one week later. It's hard to say whether a reversal in Biden's policies toward Israel will win over voters aggrieved by the war, but if Biden's policies regarding the war do not change before November, Michigan will certainly become a swing state and completely change the electoral math.
Conversely, it's unlikely that Jewish support for Israel's war will salvage Biden's prospects in Michigan. The Jewish adult population of Michigan is about 100,000. They overwhelmingly are or lean Democratic, and they are not uniformly in support of Israel's war against Gaza. Furthermore, polls have shown that most Jewish voters do not make support for Israel a critical factor in their voting behavior.
These are, however, unique times, and the past might be no indication of the future. The reported rise in anti-Semitic incidents in the US has the Jewish community palpably frightened. Given Trump's support for Israel, any perceived accommodation to pro-Palestinian concerns by Biden might be enough to swing votes away from Biden.
The most significant pool of electoral support for Israel is, however, not the Jewish population. It is Evangelical Christians, but they are the most loyal Trump voters of all, and aren't likely to make the war a decisive issue in their decision making one way or another. Biden's current support for Israel is not likely to gain him any additional votes in Michigan and is likely to lose him a significant number of votes.
Leaving aside any judgement about the war, and considering only his political fortunes, Biden would do well to moderate his support for Israel's war on Gaza. The growing international call for a ceasefire and the call by the International Court of Justice for an end to the killing, wounding, and terrorizing of the Palestinians in Gaza creates an opening for him to reconsider that support.
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